Application of an imputation method for variance estimation under pseudo-likelihood when missing data are NMAR

When data are outcome-dependent non response, pseudo-likelihood yields consistent regression coefficients without specifying the missing data mechanism. However, it is onerous to derive parameter estimators including their standard errors from the regression coefficients under pseudo-likelihood (PL). The present study applies an imputation method to compute the asymptotic standard errors of parameter estimators. The proposed method is simpler than Delta method and it showed similar effect size of the standard errors to bootstrapping in simulation and application studies.     

家电下乡政策的消费效应评估——基于全国221个村庄的4年跟踪调查

以全国221个村庄所获得的4年调查数据作为研究基础,对"家电下乡"政策的消费效应予以评估和分析。调查表明,家电下乡政策消费效应的最大特征是农民消费需求的释放,其中包括全国消费总额的上升,户均消费额增幅达到8成,全国各地消费总量和户均消费数量的增加。但家电下乡政策的消费效应在实践中也遇到了持续性疲软的难题,如农民收入的限制作用,农民购买下乡产品比重偏低,政府补贴额和补贴程序不足,政策宣传和解说不到位。为了使家电下乡政策的消费效应持续起效,必须不断完善政策,使家电下乡政策的实惠真正落实到农民身上。     

Kiefer–Wolfowitz algorithm under quasi-associated random errors

In this article, we study the algorithm of Kiefer–Wolfowitz underquasi-associated random errors. We establish the complete convergence and obtain an exponential bound. Additionally, we build a confidence interval for the minimum. Numerical examples are sketched out to confirm the theoretical results and show the accuracy of the algorithm.     

Attributing Outcomes to Social Policy Interventions – ‘Gold Standard’ or ‘Fool's Gold’ in Public Policy and Management?

In recent years there has been increased interest in outcome‐based social policy‐making and management. The UK has been in the forefront of this movement but similar movements have been identified internationally. This interest in outcome‐based decision‐making has been given particular impetus through the ‘results’‐based movement in evaluation and performance management since the 1980s, which has increased in scope over time, slowly changing its emphasis from cost reduction and measuring outputs to measuring outcomes. This change has been widely welcomed by policymakers, practitioners and academics. However, there is evidence that the reality is often rather less than the rhetoric. Moreover, the ‘attribution problem’ of attributing changes in outcomes to specific social policies has remained a major issue. The conceptual solution of constructing ‘cause‐and‐effect’ models, imported from the policy evaluation field, has only recently become common for operationalising these models. This article outlines the evolution of interest in outcome‐based social policy‐making up to recent times and the growing realization of the importance of the attribution problem. It then outlines both how the ‘cause‐and‐effect’ policy modelling approach can partially tackle the attribution problem, but also its inherent limitations. Lastly, the article uses several case studies in current UK social policy‐making to demonstrate the potential importance of the reasoning embedded within cause‐and‐effect models but also the dangers in policy‐making which adopts this approach without understanding its conceptual basis or in fields where it is inappropriate, given the current state of our knowledge of social policy systems.     

不均等选择概率下的加权调整研究

从不均等选择概率的角度,提出两类常见的权数调整类型及其调整方法:一是规模调整,使得样本单元权数之和等于总体规模;二是结构调整,使得样本结构和总体结构一致,并构造出加权调整的设计效应模型,应用于复杂样本设计。案例分析显示,加权调整往往导致设计效应变大,带来负的效应,但校准调整能降低设计效应,提高估计精度。     

Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area‐level Models

Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area‐level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an estimation error. Thus, it is desirable to consider the uncertain prior distribution, which is expressed as the mixture of a one‐point distribution and a proper prior distribution. In this paper, we develop an empirical Bayes approach for estimating area‐level means, using the uncertain prior distribution in the context of a natural exponential family, which we call the empirical uncertain Bayes (EUB) method. The regression model considered in this paper includes the Poisson‐gamma and the binomial‐beta, and the normal‐normal (Fay–Herriot) model, which are typically used in small area estimation. We obtain the estimators of hyperparameters based on the marginal likelihood by using a well‐known expectation‐maximization algorithm and propose the EUB estimators of area means. For risk evaluation of the EUB estimator, we derive a second‐order unbiased estimator of a conditional mean squared error by using some techniques of numerical calculation. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we evaluate a performance of the EUB estimator and compare it with the usual empirical Bayes estimator.     

公共卫生支出、健康结果与卫生投入政策——基于189个国家和地区的面板门槛分析（1995—2011年）

利用189个国家和地区1995—2011年的数据实证检验公共卫生支出规模对一个国家的健康结果（婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命）的影响，结果表明，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重对婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命的影响具有门槛效应，门槛值分别位于1.9%和6.62%。分段回归结果显示，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重低于1.9%时，公共卫生投入对出生时的平均期望寿命没有显著影响，对婴儿死亡率的影响较弱；超过1.9%后，公共卫生投入的规模效应开始体现，对健康结果指标的影响均显著增强；超过6.62%后，公共卫生投入对婴儿死亡率的影响不再显著，对出生时平均期望寿命的弹性系数不再变化，单位边际贡献不再增加。中国当前政府卫生投入规模仍然较低，需要继续增大公共资金投入、降低个人卫生支出比重。     

探析“隧道效应”在社会治理中的应用

当前在我国经济社会发展不平衡的背景下,社会治理已经并将长期面临新的形势和新的挑战。在这些挑战和问题面前,我们如何通过对我国社会治理状况的深入分析,深化对社会管理规律和特点的认识,不断地进行理论创新,找到建设中国特色社会治理体系应遵循的基本原则,探索适合我国国情的社会治理体制机制,提高社会治理的能力和水平。本文从一个经济学的概念——"隧道效应"出发,将其引入到社会治理的研究中来,分析"隧道效应"发生背后的文化逻辑,并从社会的角度来分析这种正的隧道效应是否可以持续及其政策建议。